Prognostic Accuracy of News 2 in Geriatric Patients with COVID-19 in a Tertiary Care Hospital

Introduction: COVID-19 is a widespread disease having more impact on elderly as compared to younger age group. [2] Although many parameters have emerged as predictors of prognosis of COVID-19, a simple clinical score at baseline can be used for early risk stratification. NEWS2 (National Early Warning Score) is one such scoring system which was originally developed to improve detection of deterioration in acutely ill patients.[8] Therefore, the present study has been conducted to assess the effectiveness of NEWS2 in predicting critical outcomes and mortality in geriatric patients with COVID-19. Material(s) and Method(s): A cross sectional Observational study was done on 200 Geriatric patients hospitalised with confirmed COVID-19 between December 2020 to November 2022. Baseline NEWS2 score was calculated. The sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value and Negative Predictive Value were established for NEWS2 score of 5 or above. Result(s): In critical group, all 109 (100%) patients' deterioration was predicted, and in non-critical group, in 14 (15.4%) patients non deterioration was predicted while 77 (84.6%) patients' deterioration was predicted. Statistically significant association has been observed between the critical, non-critical groups and NEWS2 scale (P=0.001). Deterioration was predicted by NEWS2 scale in all the critical patients. Conclusion(s): NEWS2 score of 5 or more on admission predicts poor prognosis in geriatric patients with COVID-19 with good sensitivity and it can easily be applied for risk stratification at baseline. We recommend further studies in the Indian setting to validate this simple score and use it further in Geriatric patients with COVID-19.Copyright © 2023, Dr Yashwant Research Labs Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive Performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 for Stratification of Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

Aim: To validate the ability of National Early Waring Score 2 (NEWS2) for predicting the severity of Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). In addition, we also intend to examine the impact of pre-existing comorbidities to produce an advanced COVID-19 disease.Materials and Methods: A multicenter prospective cohort was performed on 108 patients having moderate-intensity COVID-19 infection during October 2020 and November 2021. NEWS2 parameters were recorded on admission to generate an output score, which then classified in accordance with the NEWS2 reference scale into low, medium, and high-risk categories. Each patient was followed till discharge or death for the clinical progression of COVID-19. The measures of validity and area under the curve (AUC) for NEWS2 threshold scores were calculated to predict the clinical deterioration of COVID-19.Results: Overall, 29.6% patients developed an advanced disease, out of which 21.8% patients died during treatment. NEWS2 score of 6 or more showed the highest sensitivity (78.1%), specificity (94.8%), and the AUC (0.838) for predicting an adverse outcome. Among comorbidities, the majority showed an increased risk of clinical deterioration.Conclusion: NEWS2 score of 6 or more at baseline showed good predictive ability to stratify patients with poor outcomes who may later require escalated care. However, we recommend more research to confirm our findings.

Using NEWS2 to triage newly admitted patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread globally and caused a major worldwide health crisis. Patients who are affected more seriously by COVID-19 usually deteriorate rapidly and need further intensive care. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) as a risk stratification tool to discriminate newly admitted patients with COVID-19 at risk of serious events. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective single-centre case-control study on 200 unselected patients consecutively admitted in March 2020 in a public general hospital in Wuhan, China. METHODS: The following serious events were considered: mortality, unplanned intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and non-invasive ventilation treatment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to quantify the association between outcomes and NEWS2. RESULTS: There were 12 patients (6.0%) who had serious events, where 7 patients (3.5%) experienced unplanned ICU admissions. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and cut-off of NEWS2 for the composite outcome were 0.83 and 3, respectively. For patients with NEWS2 ≥ 4, the odds of being at risk for serious events was 16.4 (AUROC = 0.74), while for patients with NEWS2 ≥ 7, the odds of being at risk for serious events was 18.2 (AUROC = 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: NEWS2 has an appropriate ability to triage newly admitted patients with COVID-19 into three levels of risk: low risk (NEWS2 = 0-3), medium risk (NEWS2 = 4-6), and high risk (NEWS2 ≥ 7). RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Using NEWS2 may help nurses in early identification of at-risk COVID-19 patients and clinical nursing decision-making. Using NEWS2 to triage new patients with COVID-19 may help nurses provide more appropriate level of care and medical resources allocation for patients safety.

COVID-19 Patients' Health Monitoring System using Fuzzy Ontology and Internet of Things

COVID-19 is a very dangerous pandemic attacking the respiratory organs of humans. It is characterized by its contagious speed, especially with its last versions. Effectiveness of confrontation resides in a strategy based on the speed of intervention, early detection, and appropriate and quick treatment. However, this strategy requires more effort and enormous human, material, and financial resources. The latter situation requires a much more efficient solution based on using new technologies. Through the integration of the internet of things in healthcare, the quality of the latter will be improved. This integration requires suitable architecture represent the foundation for the system that handles the data generated by this technology. To concretize this strategy, we propose an approach based on IoT architecture inspired by the organization of the Algerian health structure for fighting COVID-19. The architecture allows the organization to manage resources and ensure adequate resources. The approach also consists of a semantic web-based system to handle the heterogeneity of data sources and exchange it with different applications. The system is based on a proposed fuzzy ontology that helps to treat vague and imprecise data that characterize the medical domain. The fuzzy ontology is developed by reusing a standard IoT ontology for allowing the sharing and reuse of IoT data. It also uses the NEWS2 score system for defining membership functions. We conducted an experimental study, and the results of the proposed approach were compared with those obtained by physician assessment. The results show that the approach is effective, and even if COVID-19 disappears soon according to the World Health Organization indications, the proposed approach will still be valid for any other epidemic that may occur in the future or for any other disease. © 2023 Iraqi Journal for Computer Science and Mathematics. All rights reserved.

Early Warning Scores at Time of ICU Admission to Predict Mortality in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To assess ability of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), and CRB-65 calculated at the time of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for predicting ICU mortality in patients of laboratory confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. METHODS: This prospective data analysis was based on chart reviews for laboratory confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs over a 1-mo period. The NEWS2, CRB-65, qSOFA, and SIRS were calculated from the first recorded vital signs upon admission to ICU and assessed for predicting mortality. RESULTS: Total of 140 patients aged between 18 and 95 y were included in the analysis of whom majority were >60 y (47.8%), with evidence of pre-existing comorbidities (67.1%). The most common symptom at presentation was dyspnea (86.4%). Based upon the receiver operating characteristics area under the curve (AUC), the best discriminatory power to predict ICU mortality was for the CRB-65 (AUC: 0.720 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.630-0.811]) followed closely by NEWS2 (AUC: 0.712 [95% CI: 0.622-0.803]). Additionally, a multivariate Cox regression model showed Glasgow Coma Scale score at time of admission (P < 0.001; adjusted hazard ratio = 0.808 [95% CI: 0.715-0.911]) to be the only significant predictor of ICU mortality. CONCLUSIONS: CRB-65 and NEWS2 scores assessed at the time of ICU admission offer only a fair discriminatory value for predicting mortality. Further evaluation after adding laboratory markers such as C-reactive protein and D-dimer may yield a more useful prediction model. Much of the earlier data is from developed countries and uses scoring at time of hospital admission. This study was from a developing country, with the scores assessed at time of ICU admission, rather than the emergency department as with existing data from developed countries, for patients with moderate/severe COVID-19 disease. Because the scores showed some utility for predicting ICU mortality even when measured at time of ICU admission, their use in allocation of limited ICU resources in a developing country merits further research.

Impact of frailty on the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 to predict poor outcome in patients hospitalised due to COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is a scoring tool predictive of poor outcome in hospitalised patients. Older patients with COVID-19 have increased risk of poor outcome, but it is not known if frailty may impact the predictive performance of NEWS2. We aimed to investigate the impact of frailty on the performance of NEWS2 to predict in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalised due to COVID-19. METHODS: We included all patients admitted to a non-university Norwegian hospital due to COVID-19 from 9 March 2020 until 31 December 2021. NEWS2 was scored based on the first vital signs recorded upon hospital admission. Frailty was defined as a Clinical Frailty Scale score ≥ 4. The performance of a NEWS2 score ≥ 5 to predict in-hospital mortality was assessed with sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) according to frailty status. RESULTS: Out of 412 patients, 70 were aged ≥ 65 years and with frailty. They presented less frequently with respiratory symptoms, and more often with acute functional decline or new-onset confusion. In-hospital mortality was 6% in patients without frailty, and 26% in patients with frailty. NEWS2 predicted in-hospital mortality with a sensitivity of 86%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 64%-97% and AUROC 0.73, 95% CI 0.65-0.81 in patients without frailty. In older patients with frailty, sensitivity was 61%, 95% CI 36%-83% and AUROC 0.61, 95% CI 0.48-0.75. CONCLUSION: A single NEWS2 score at hospital admission performed poorly to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with frailty and COVID-19 and should be used with caution in this patient group. Graphical abstract summing up study design, results and conclusion.

Interim Analysis of Impact of Adding Low Dose Pulmonary Radiotherapy to Moderate COVID-19 Pneumonia Patients: IMpaCt-RT Study.

Background: Treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia remains largely supportive till date and multiple clinical trials took place within the short span of time to evaluate the role of investigational therapies. The anti-inflammatory effect of low dose whole lung radiation in treating pneumonia has been documented earlier. This clinical trial analyzed the effect of low dose radiation therapy (LDRT) in a moderately affected COVID-19 pneumonia patient cohort and has evaluated its effect in stopping the conversion of moderate disease into severe disease. Methods: Patients with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia as characterized by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW), Government of India, were randomized (1:1) to low dose whole lung radiation versus no radiation. All treatment of patients was concurrently being given as per institutional protocol. Patients were followed up with clinical and laboratory parameters monitored on Days 1, 3, 7, and 14. Computed tomography scan (CT scan) of thorax was performed on Days 1 and 7. Patients were evaluated for conversion of moderate into severe disease as per National Early Warning Score-2 (NEWS-2 score) as the primary end point. The secondary endpoints included changes in ratio between peripheral capillary oxygen saturation and fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO2/FiO2), biochemical markers, 25-point CT severity score, and radiation induced acute pulmonary toxicities. Findings: At the interim analysis, there were seven patients in the radiation arm and six in the control. A whole lung LDRT improved the outcome of SpO2/FiO2 at Day 3; however it did not convert into a statistically significant improvement for the NEWS-2 score. The serum levels of LDH, CRP, Ferritin and D-dimer were significantly reduced on 14 days in the LDRT arm in comparison to the baseline value but were not significant between the two groups. Interpretation: LDRT seems to have the potential to prevent moderate COVID-19 pneumonia from a deteriorating to severe category. However, further randomized clinical trial with an adequate number of such patients is warranted to establish the definitive role of LDRT in the management of COVID-19 pneumonia. Funding: An intramural research project bearing code: I-27/621, was sanctioned from the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Patna, India. Clinical Trial Registration: Clinical Trials Registry-India (CTRI/2021/06/033912, 25th May 2021) ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/login.php.

Predictive value of early warning scores for clinical deterioration and mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 pneumonia patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The most important step in inpatient management to prevent mortality in COVID-19 patients is to diagnose clinical deterioration early and quickly. Early warning score (EWS) systems evaluate vital signs to detect early deterioration in a patient's clinical status. The aim of this study was to see how accurate the EWS is at predicting the need for a transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) and the mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia patients who are hospitalized. METHODS: A total of 471 confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia patients treated in our COVID-19 wards were included in the present study. RESULTS: ICU admission occurred in 95 (20.1%) of the cases during hospitalization, with a death rate of 11.9%. Compared with patients who were not admitted to the ICU, those who were admitted had higher National Early Warning Score (NEWS), NEWS2, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score (p<0.001). NEWS was found to be superior to NEWS2, MEWS, and qSOFA in predicting patient clinical deterioration (p<0.001). NEWS outperformed NEWS2, MEWS, and the qSOFA score in predicting overall hospital mortality (p<0.05). ICU admission was substantially associated with high NEWS (>= 7) and NEWS2 (>= 7) (p=0.001, p=0.0028). CONCLUSIONS: NEWS and NEWS2 could be used routinely in pandemic wards to detect clinical worsening in COVID-19 pneumonia patients who are hospitalized.

Evaluation of the utility of NEWS2 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a dramatic increase in acutely ill patients presenting to hospitals with life-threatening acute respiratory disease. There was an immediate need for effective triage systems to facilitate clinical decision making. This review assesses the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in two contexts. Firstly, the ability to detect acute illness severity and likely clinical deterioration in patients presenting to hospitals with COVID-19. Secondly, the use of NEWS2 in the longitudinal monitoring to detect acute clinical deterioration in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. NEWS2 appeared to be at least comparable and, often, superior to other scoring systems (such as qSOFA and CURB-65), and provided an earlier alert of deterioration. A NEWS2 of 5 had high short-term sensitivity within and was unlikely to miss patients with COVID-19 who go on to deteriorate, but this comes with moderate specificity. However, the specificity of these systems is likely underestimated because preventing deterioration is their purpose.NEWS2 is an adjunct to clinical decision making and has served that purpose during the COVID-19 pandemic, playing an important role in communicating illness severity, clinical deterioration, triaging patients to appropriate levels of care and prompting completion of treatment escalation plans for those with high scores and at imminent risk of deterioration.

High levels of soluble RAGE are associated with a greater risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients treated with dexamethasone.

Blood levels of the soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-products (sRAGE) are acutely elevated during the host inflammatory response to infection and predict mortality in COVID-19. However, the prognostic performance of this biomarker in the context of treatments to reduce inflammation is unclear. In this study we investigated the association between sRAGE and mortality in dexamethasone-treated COVID-19 patients. We studied 89 SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects and 22 controls attending the emergency department of a University Teaching Hospital during the second wave of COVID-19 and measured sRAGE at admission. In positive individuals sRAGE increased with disease severity and correlated with the National Early Warning Score 2 (Pearson's r = 0.56, p < 0.001). Fourteen out of 72 patients treated with dexamethasone died during 28 days of follow-up. Survival rates were significantly lower in patients with high sRAGE (> 3532 pg/mL) than in those with low sRAGE (p = 0.01). Higher sRAGE levels were associated with an increased risk of death after adjustment for relevant covariates. In contrast, IL-6 did not predict mortality in these patients. These results demonstrate that sRAGE remains an independent predictor of mortality among COVID-19 patients treated with dexamethasone. Determination of sRAGE could be useful for the clinical management of this patient population.

National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) on admission predicts severe disease and in-hospital mortality from Covid-19 - a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for validated clinical risk scores to identify patients at risk of severe disease and to guide decision-making during the covid-19 pandemic. The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is widely used in emergency medicine, but so far, no studies have evaluated its use in patients with covid-19. We aimed to study the performance of NEWS2 and compare commonly used clinical risk stratification tools at admission to predict risk of severe disease and in-hospital mortality in patients with covid-19. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study in a public non-university general hospital in the Oslo area, Norway, including a cohort of all 66 patients hospitalised with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from the start of the pandemic; 13 who died during hospital stay and 53 who were discharged alive. Data were collected consecutively from March 9th to April 27th 2020. The main outcome was the ability of the NEWS2 score and other clinical risk scores at emergency department admission to predict severe disease and in-hospital mortality in covid-19 patients. We calculated sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for NEWS2 scores ≥5 and ≥ 6, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score ≥ 2, ≥2 Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria, and CRB-65 score ≥ 2. Areas under the curve (AUCs) for the clinical risk scores were compared using DeLong's test. RESULTS: In total, 66 patients (mean age 67.9 years) were included. Of these, 23% developed severe disease. In-hospital mortality was 20%. Tachypnoea, hypoxemia and confusion at admission were more common in patients developing severe disease. A NEWS2 score ≥ 6 at admission predicted severe disease with 80.0% sensitivity and 84.3% specificity (Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.822, 95% CI 0.690-0.953). NEWS2 was superior to qSOFA score ≥ 2 (AUC 0.624, 95% CI 0.446-0.810, p < 0.05) and other clinical risk scores for this purpose. CONCLUSION: NEWS2 score at hospital admission predicted severe disease and in-hospital mortality, and was superior to other widely used clinical risk scores in patients with covid-19.

Cardiac Biomarkers and Risk Scores in Relation with History of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Patients Admitted with COVID-19: The Experience of an Eastern European Center.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding the combined prognostic role of biomarkers and risk scores in relation with the history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in COVID-19 patients are lacking. METHODS: The aim of this observational cohort study was to evaluate the combined prognostic value of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro BNP), troponin and risk scores in relation with ASCVD history in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The primary composite endpoint was Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and death. RESULTS: From April 2020 to June 2022, 1066 consecutive COVID-19 patients with available biomarkers upon admission were included. During a median follow-up period of 12 days, 176 patients (16.5%) died. Independent predictors of ICU admission and death in patients with ASCVD were NT-pro BNP (HR 2.63; 95% CI, 1.65-4.18) and troponin (HR 1.51; 95% CI, 1.13-2.03). In patients without ASCVD, only NT-pro BNP was predictive for the primary endpoint (HR 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10-2.53). This remained significant after adjustment for other relevant covariates (HR 3.54; 95% CI, 1.98-6.33) in patients with ASCVD and in patients without ASCVD (HR 1.82; 95% CI, 1.02-3.26). CONCLUSIONS: These data showed the combined prognostic accuracy of NT-pro BNP and troponin in relation with ASCVD history for ICU admission and death in COVID-19 patients.

Reassessment of disease severity routine laboratory tests in the COVID-19 infection

Introduction. Publications demonstrate some limitations of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) accuracy in assessment on coronavirus infection severity. The purpose of this study was to determine the value of the patient’s age and routine laboratory parameters in the assessment of patient’s general condition in coronavirus pneumonia and their relation to NEWS-2 scale parameters. Materials and methods. 50 case reports of patients with COVID-19 infection observed in the Sechenov University in January–March 2021 were analyzed. 34 % of patients were males aged 31 to 89 years (average age 55 years) and 66 % — females aged 40 to 91 (mean age 63). The diagnosis of pneumonia was confirmed by computed tomography. NEWS-2 scale total score was assessed. Results. According to the physician’s subjective assessment the condition was significantly more often assessed as moderate and severe. There was only a weak correlation between the blood oxygen saturation and the total NEWS-2 score (r = 0.165, α = 0.1). We found a mild correlation (r = 0.341, α = 0.1) between the patient’s age and NEWS-2 score. Among the most significantly interrelated parameters were age, neutrophil count, serum creatinine, CRP, fibrinogen level. Seven interrelated parameters (age, body temperature, blood oxygen saturation, the neutrophils count, creatinine, CRP, fibrinogen), for which a reliable relation with other tests has been shown, were assigned with its special index according to their contribution to the assessment of the overall condition severity. An aggregated score (criterion X) was proposed for assessment of disease severity according to equation. The proportions of mild, moderate, and severe cases according to criterion X were 12 %, 64 % and 24 %. Conclusion. The preliminary results obtained in the study emphasize the importance of routine laboratory tests in assessment of coronavirus infection severity. An evident discrepancy between NEWS-2 score and X criterion may be very important for practice. © Russian Journal of Neurosurgery.All rights reserved.

Pulmonary Artery Enlargement: An Independent Risk Factor for Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19.

Objective: To assess whether baseline pulmonary artery diameter (PAD), obtained from noncontrast nongated computed tomography (NCCT), can be associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. Patients and Methods: This is a retrospective study of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 admitted to Hôtel-Dieu de France university hospital (Beirut, Lebanon) between March 1, 2020 and March 1, 2021. Pulmonary artery diameter was measured at baseline NCCT. Various outcomes were assessed, including hospital length of stay, intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, mortality, and Post-COVID-19 Functional Status scale at discharge and at 2-month follow-up. Results: Four hundred sixty-five patients underwent baseline NCCT, including 315 men (67.7%) with a mean age of 63.7±16 years. Baseline PAD was higher in critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (mean difference, 0.8 mm; 95% CI, 0.4-1.59 mm) and those receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (mean difference, 1.1 mm; 95% CI, 0.11-2.04 mm). Pulmonary artery diameter at baseline correlated significantly with hospital length of stay (r=0.130; P=.005), discharge status (r=0.117; P=.023), and with Post-COVID-19 Functional Status scale at 2-month follow-up (r=0.121; P=.021). Moreover, multivariable logistic regression showed that a PAD of 24.5 mm and above independently predicted in-hospital all-cause mortality remained unaffected in patients with COVID-19 (odds ratio, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.05-4.09). Conclusion: Baseline PAD measurement using NCCT can be a useful prognostic parameter. Its measurement can help to identify early severe cases and adapt the initial management of patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Predictive Value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and New Early Warning Signs Scores Estimate Mortality of COVID-19 Patients Requiring Intensive Care Unit.

Introduction: Various mortality predictive score models for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) have been deliberated. We studied how sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and new early warning signs (NEWS-2) scores estimate mortality in COVID-19 patients. Materials and methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 53 patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19. We calculated qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 on initial admission and re-evaluated on day 5. We performed logistic regression analysis to differentiate the predictors of qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 scores on mortality. Result: qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 scores on day 5 exhibited a difference between survivors and nonsurvivors (p <0.05), also between ICU and non-ICU admission (p <0.05). The initial NEWS-2 revealed a higher AUC value than the qSOFA, APACHE II, and SOFA score in estimating mortality (0.867; 0.83; 0.822; 0.794). In ICU, APACHE II score revealed a higher AUC value than the SOFA, NEWS-2, and qSOFA score (0.853; 0.832; 0.813; 0.809). Concurrently, evaluation on day 5 showed that qSOFA AUC had higher scores than the NEWS-2, APACHE II, and SOFA (0.979; 0.965; 0.939; 0.933) in predicting mortality, while SOFA and APACHE II AUC were higher in ICU admission than NEWS-2 and qSOFA (0.968; 0.964; 0.939; 0.934). According to the cutoff score, APACHE II on day 5 revealed the highest sensitivity and specificity in predicting the mortality (sensitivity 95.7%, specificity 86.7%). Conclusion: All scores signify good predictive values on COVID-19 patients mortality following the evaluation on the day 5. Nonetheless, APACHE-II appears to be the best at predicting mortality and ICU admission rate. How to cite this article: Asmarawati TP, Suryantoro SD, Rosyid AN, Marfiani E, Windradi C, Mahdi BA, et al. Predictive Value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and New Early Warning Signs Scores Estimate Mortality of COVID-19 Patients Requiring Intensive Care Unit. Indian J Crit Care Med 2022;26(4):464-471.

A New Early Predictor of Fatal Outcome for COVID-19 in an Italian Emergency Department: The Modified Quick-SOFA.

BACKGROUND: Since 2019, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is causing a rapidly spreading pandemic. The present study aims to compare a modified quick SOFA (MqSOFA) score with the NEWS-2 score to predict in-hospital mortality (IHM), 30-days mortality and recovery setting. METHODS: All patients admitted from March to October 2020 to the Emergency Department of St. Anna Hospital, Ferrara, Italy with clinically suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection were retrospectively included in this single-centre study and evaluated with the MqSOFA and NEWS-2 scores. Statistical and logistic regression analyses were applied to our database. RESULTS: A total of 3359 individual records were retrieved. Among them, 2716 patients were excluded because of a negative nasopharyngeal swab and 206 for lacking data; thus, 437 patients were eligible. The data showed that the MqSOFA and NEWS-2 scores equally predicted IHM (p < 0.001) and 30-days mortality (p < 0.001). Higher incidences of coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular accidents, dementia, chronic kidney disease and cancer were found in the deceased vs. survived group. CONCLUSIONS: In this study we confirmed that the MqSOFA score was non-inferior to the NEWS-2 score in predicting IHM and 30-days mortality. Furthermore, the MqSOFA score was easier to use than NEWS-2 and is more suitable for emergency settings. Neither the NEWS-2 nor the MqSOFA scores were able to predict the recovery setting.

Development and Validation of the Acute PNeumonia Early Assessment Score for Safely Discharging Low-Risk SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients from the Emergency Department.

A continuous demand for assistance and an overcrowded emergency department (ED) require early and safe discharge of low-risk severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-infected patients. We developed (n = 128) and validated (n = 330) the acute PNeumonia early assessment (aPNea) score in a tertiary hospital and preliminarily tested the score on an external secondary hospital (n = 97). The score's performance was compared to that of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). The composite outcome of either death or oral intubation within 30 days from admission occurred in 101 and 28 patients in the two hospitals, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the aPNea model was 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78-0.93) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.73-0.89) for the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The aPNea score discriminated low-risk patients better than NEWS2 at a 10% outcome probability, corresponding to five cut-off points and one cut-off point, respectively. aPNea's cut-off reduced the number of unnecessary hospitalizations without missing outcomes by 27% (95% CI, 9-41) in the validation cohort. NEWS2 was not significant. In the external cohort, aPNea's cut-off had 93% sensitivity (95% CI, 83-102) and a 94% negative predictive value (95% CI, 87-102). In conclusion, the aPNea score appears to be appropriate for discharging low-risk SARS-CoV-2-infected patients from the ED.

COVID-19 disease in hospitalized young adults in India and China: Evaluation of risk factors predicting progression across two major ethnic groups.

Data pertaining to risk factor analysis in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is confounded by the lack of data from an ethnically diverse population. In addition, there is a lack of data for young adults. This study was conducted to assess risk factors predicting COVID-19 severity and mortality in hospitalized young adults. A retrospective observational study was conducted at two centers from China and India on COVID-19 patients aged 20-50 years. Regression analysis to predict adverse outcomes was performed using parameters including age, sex, country of origin, hospitalization duration, comorbidities, lymphocyte count, and National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) score at admission. A total of 420 patients (172 East Asians and 248 South Asians) were included. The predictive model for intensive care unit (ICU) admission with variables NEWS2 Category II and higher, diabetes mellitus, liver dysfunction, and low lymphocyte counts had an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.930 with a sensitivity of 0.931 and a specificity of 0.784. The predictive model for mortality with NEWS2 Category III, cancer, and decreasing lymphocyte count had an AUC value of 0.883 with a sensitivity of 0.903 and a specificity of 0.701. A combined predictive model with bronchial asthma and low lymphocyte count, in contrast, had an AUC value of 0.768 with a sensitivity of 0.828 and a specificity of 0.719 for NEWS2 score (5 or above) at presentation. NEWS2 supplemented with comorbidity profile and lymphocyte count could help identify hospitalized young adults at risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes.

The Prognostic Accuracy of National Early Warning Score 2 on Predicting Clinical Deterioration for Patients With COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is recommended for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. Therefore, our purpose is to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS2 on predicting clinical deterioration for patients with COVID-19. Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library from December 2019 to March 2021. Clinical deterioration was defined as the need for intensive respiratory support, admission to the intensive care unit, or in-hospital death. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were pooled by using the bivariate random-effects model. Overall prognostic performance was summarized by using the area under the curve (AUC). We performed subgroup analyses to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS2 in different conditions. Results: Eighteen studies with 6,922 participants were included. The NEWS2 of five or more was commonly used for predicting clinical deterioration. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were 0.82, 0.67, and 0.82, respectively. Benefitting from adding a new SpO2 scoring scale for patients with hypercapnic respiratory failure, the NEWS2 showed better sensitivity (0.82 vs. 0.75) and discrimination (0.82 vs. 0.76) than the original NEWS. In addition, the NEWS2 was a sensitive method (sensitivity: 0.88) for predicting short-term deterioration within 72 h. Conclusions: The NEWS2 had moderate sensitivity and specificity in predicting the deterioration of patients with COVID-19. Our results support the use of NEWS2 monitoring as a sensitive method to initially assess COVID-19 patients at hospital admission, although it has a relatively high false-trigger rate. Our findings indicated that the development of enhanced or modified NEWS may be necessary.

National Early Warning Score 2 and laboratory predictors correlate with clinical deterioration in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Aim: We aimed to determine the prognostic values of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and laboratory parameters during the first week of COVID-19. Materials & methods: All adult patients who were hospitalized for confirmed COVID-19 between 11 March and 11 May 2020 were retrospectively included. Results: Overall, 611 patients were included. Our results showed that NEWS2, procalcitonin, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and albumin at D0, D3, D5 and D7 were the best predictors for clinical deterioration defined as a composite of ICU admission during hospitalization or in-hospital death. Procalcitonin had the highest odds ratio for clinical deterioration on all days. Conclusion: This study provides a list of several laboratory parameters correlated with NEWS2 and potential predictors for clinical deterioration in patients with COVID-19.

Lay abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is a grueling problem worldwide. There is a lack of knowledge about the predictive value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for severe COVID-19 illness. We analyzed the prognostic value of NEWS2 and laboratory parameters during the clinical course of COVID-19. This study provides a list of several laboratory parameters correlated with NEWS2 and potential predictors for intensive care unit admission during hospitalization or in-hospital death.